Hubris May Be the Duke of Donald’s Downfall

Hubris is a funny word. It means

excessive pride or self-confidence.

That excessive pride or self-confidence becomes the means of your own demise when it prevents you from seeing things as they are. instead, you see them the way you want to see them.

The Duke of Donald is full of hubris. How do I know? Because he has the insane belief that he can manage US trade relations through his bullying over tariffs. And so, the US is in a prolonged trade war with China. What Trump doesn’t understand is that trade wars create instabilities in corporate relations which lead to  a lower velocity of trade, and prolonged economic slowdown.

That was learned when the US implemented the disastrous Smoot Hawley tariffs in 1930.

And so, sooner or later, the Trump trade war will have a similar effect on the US economy. We don’t know how big it will be. But we are starting to see numbers that look scary. And of course, the Duke of Donald is freaking out.

But there is not much he can do about the things he already did to bring this all about. That is all water over the damn.

We shall see how this plays out. But my growing suspicion is that the Duke of Donald has sown the seeds of a democratic landslide in 2020.

… in the time since the US Civil War, only one president has been reelected after a recession in the final two years of his first term. That was William McKinley in 1900.

Not only that, recall that the so called “Hoover depression” led to FDR’s election, and record 4 terms in office. Then, of course, we have Jimmy Carter who lost to Ronald Reagan after a period of “stagflation” and then a recession just before the election.

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