Trump: Scorched Earth until I Just Give Up

The media is not used to dealing with a public figure like Donald Trump. They are more used to covering people who are polite and at least try to appear reasonable. Trump is not polite and is not reasonable.

His tactics in dispute management are somewhat one dimensional. When he is attacked, he goes “scorched earth”. He villifies the people threatening him and makes the fight as personal as possible. He  screams like a stuck pig. He wails over injustice. He demands vindication. While he does this, he assesses the odds of losing. And when it appears he will lose, he caves. He usually does so suddenly and without great publicity. That, for example is exactly what happened with the Trump University litigation where he paid out $25 million in settlement of fraud claims after repeatedly wailing that he was as innocent as the driven snow.

How does this translate into what is going on now? Trump is pursuing a scorched earth policy — to the extent that he can — now. He is screaming like a stuck pig that he is the subject of a witch hunt. His own Justice Department appointments are against him! But there is a problem for him that may be insurmountable.

Regardless of what happened during the campaign, Trump knows that there are many, many skeletons in his closet. He knows that Bob Mueller will find them. Why am I so confident? Simple. Trump’s business model is capital intensive. And when he screwed US banks with his bankrupticies, he lost the ability to raise significant capital from US sources. He went to Russia and Russian satelites and raised capital there with oligarchs and whomever. He was not picky. The strategy worked. He got the capital that he needed to stay afloat.  Everything looked ok on the surface.  He was confident that no one would ever know how he saved his “empire”.

But Trump had gathered contacts with a boatload of unsavory characters. These contacts are all going to be revealed by Bob Mueller, if Mueller goes forward. And Trump knows that as they come out, he will be revealed as the con man that he is.

At a convenient moment, Trump will just give up. He will try to do a Nixon and get a pardon in excchange for a resignation.  He will want to return to his prior lifestyle where he can comment on affairs while taking no responsibility for his comments.  I am not sure if he will get this deal. But I am sure that at some point, he will seek it out.

Am I right? Let’s see how this plays out.


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