Deconstructing the Assad Chemical Attack

It was a terrible thing, and of course, just one of many terrible things that are happening in Syria. But why did Assad decide to use chemical weapons now?

Before answering, you might consider that by using them, he has revealed to the world that he has them. They were supposed to be destroyed, but not all of them were.  In other words, Assad gave up a certain amount of secrecy by employing chemical weapons at this moment.

And you might ask, what did Assad gain by the attack? Was it a desperate moment where he had no choice? All indications are that the attack was gratuitous. Using chemical weapons had no tactical effect. So, it would appear that Assad gave up his secret for nothing.  Strange. Very strange, I would say.

And you might ask whether Assad did this without Russian coordination.The answer according to US intelligence sources – highly unlikely.  Nothing happens in Syria without Putin’s ok. And even if Assad were trying to pull a fast one — for reasons that only a lunatic might understand — Russians at the airbase would have seen the special preparations needed to launch the attack. They would have known and would have passed the word on.

So we are inching closer to the idea that Assad did not need, and perhaps did not even want to do this horrible chemical attack on his own. It may have been Putin’s idea.

Let’s assume for a moment that it was Putin’s idea. Why would Putin suggest it? Some say that he may have been testing Trump. If so, what was the purpose of the test?  To see if Trump would do something? Why test that when Trump wasn’t doing anything in Syria anyway?   Why not just let sleeping dogs lie? When you think about it, there was nothing to test just at this moment.

We are left with one rather disturbing idea. Putin wanted Trump to respond just enough to rally support in American for Trump. To give the impression that Trump is a tough guy. To give the impression that Trump would stand up to Russia.  And to distract attention from the Congressional investigations about Russian meddling in the election.

If I am right, Putin will now pretend to be angry. He will pretend to be ready for a showdown – a confrontation. The confrontation may be avoided, but it will require high-level diplomacy. High-level diplomacy that Trump will take credit for. In other words, Putin is building Trump us to make him a more valuable partner later.

I smell a rat. Do You?

Stay tuned.

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